Perils of Punditry
Beware the Counsel of the Ignorant
From the opening salvos of the war between Israel, US, and Iran, the hot takes across the media (television, social media, newspapers) have been legion. That is nothing new. Pundits will pundit. We are never short of pundits offering their opinions and prognostications about government policy and how things will turn out. With domestic policy its even more pervasive. Social media invites this sort of behavior. We see a video or some post and feel the need to offer our own commentary, often with little to no expertise or understanding of the situation. I fall into this trap like everyone else, though I try to restrain myself.
Whatever the burning issue of the day, we all of a sudden find ourselves with a horde of newly minted experts ready to offer their insights on issues that they know virtually nothing about. The Iran war is a good example of this. I see academics and other people I know who have no experience whatsoever in the Middle East, no special knowledge of Iran, no understanding of the geopolitics of the region, no knowledge of the American or Israeli military and the sorts of capabilities they possess, or really any knowledge of the recent history, offering self-assured judgments on an issue that is extremely complex. What they do know, as other fellow Americans know, is that the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars failed, though for dramatically different reasons, and so they project that onto Iran and imagine this is smart.
My childhood was filled with Super Bowls in which the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills would go to the Super Bowl and then proceed to lose. Jim Kelly and John Elway were considered born losers. However, after losing three Super Bowls, John Elway managed to win two. Jim Kelley could never shake the curse. War is infinitely more complex and mysterious than professional football, so the smug armchair strategist’s take on these events is even more preposterous.
That is not to say the war launched by the US and Israel is smart or well thought out. It may or may not be. We will see. It could turn into a disaster or a success. Such is the way of wars throughout history. The Ukrainian war looked like a cake walk for the Russians, and it should have been. But here we are four years later with the Ukrainians, against all odds, holding the line. I am reminded of Socrates’ claim in the Apology that he was the smartest man in Athens because he knew he knew nothing, whereas everyone else claimed to know something, when in reality they didn’t.
I am no expert on the Middle East, Iran, Israel, American military capabilities, or the other myriad of extremely complex moving parts of Middle Eastern politics. It is a very old and complex region. But I am willing to admit that fact. I don’t really know what is going on. I listen to and read experts whom I trust to give me the best information about what is unfolding, but even that information is highly contingent and partial. Are those experts reading the latest intel coming from the region? Do they know what is happening on the ground in Iran? Do they know how effectively the US and Israel are executing their missions?
Our free society and culture of public debate invite us to react to every event, often with little reflection or knowledge. Social media amplifies this. And so we saturate society with reaction and impulsive knee-jerk responses that do little to instruct or inform one another or the public.
The problem with reactionary punditry is that it does nothing constructive to help our nation or improve the situation. It offers a temporary relief for our own anxiety or frustrations, but it does virtually nothing to contribute anything of substance to the public discussion or analysis. The ubiquity of access to information tricks us into thinking that we know what is going on, but we don’t.
When you have a hot take on every current event, you lose all credibility, because no person knows everything. The experts that I trust often exercise restraint, admit ignorance, and offer insight that is contingent and seasoned with caution. We are not called to predict the future, but so many seem to think that is their job.
This problem is deeper, though, than merely social media and ChatGPT. The deeper issue is a loss of confidence in experts and authorities. Americans’ confidence in their government is at an all-time low. The last 25 years of American foreign policy have been an utter failure, so the loss of confidence in our foreign policy establishment is well deserved. Iraq and Afghanistan were colossal wastes of human lives and resources. No one was held accountable, and, in fact, many of the people who advocated and cheered on those misadventures are still gainfully employed instead of being run out of town.
If we want to rebuild institutions that are responsible and trustworthy, we should start by acting with restraint and circumspection. Our institutions have been drained of trust because the people who run them have proven to be unworthy of our trust. Real wisdom comes by demonstrating that you can see the complicated and multifaceted nature of events. That you don’t have a simplistic answer, but can appreciate how challenging the problems that we face are. If Christians desire to gain influence and shape policy in the future, they must start by acting in such a way that wins the trust and confidence of the public at large. Everybody is going to get things wrong at some point, but how we get those things wrong, or right, matters as much, if not more, than the judgments themselves. In an age yearning for wisdom, trusted experts and prudent leaders will prove invaluable.